Explained: Winter of discontent is a real danger for pupils’ confidence
Winter of discontent is a real danger for pupils’ confidence is examined in this 2026 education briefing, which sets out the central development, the practical context for schools and the questions leaders may need to consider.
What happened?
When pupils walk through our school gates each September, more often than not they believe that if they work hard, they can succeed. But new national research from ImpactEd’s The Engagement Platform (TEP) shows this crucial mindset, which is referred to as pupils’ sense of control, significantly weakens as children progress through secondary school.
Key details from the report
- Changes in a pupil’s sense of control matter for many reasons, but in particular we have been working with TEP and ImpactEd Group to understand how this interacts with pupils’ reading development in our schools.
- Professor John Jerrim analysed our anonymised TEP pupil engagement data alongside key stage 3 reading age tests over an academic year.
- Belief in learning is not fixed – and it matters The research, drawing on data from all 28 schools across our trust, reveals something we’ve long recognised intuitively: pupil engagement doesn’t remain constant throughout the academic year.
- Our pupils’ sense that they can control their academic outcomes through effort and strategy drops markedly between autumn and spring terms, with year 7 pupils experiencing the sharpest fall as they adjust to the transition from primary.
Why this matters for schools
The issue is relevant to school leaders because policy announcements, funding decisions and regulatory changes rarely operate in isolation. Their effects can reach staffing, budgets, curriculum planning, pupil support and communication with families. Leaders should distinguish confirmed requirements from proposals, check the implementation timetable and identify which decisions need action now.
For classroom and SEND teams, the practical question is how the development affects access, inclusion and day-to-day provision. Schools may wish to review existing plans, clarify responsibilities and make sure staff receive information in a form they can use. Where national details remain incomplete, recording assumptions and revisiting them as guidance changes can reduce avoidable confusion.
Questions for leaders and governing boards
- What has been formally confirmed, and what remains under consultation or development?
- Which pupils, staff or services are most likely to be affected?
- Are there financial, workforce, safeguarding or SEND implications that require early planning?
- What evidence or updated guidance should be monitored next?
- How will the school communicate any resulting change clearly to staff and families?
